Tropical Cyclone (15L) Nicole remains active…located about 455 miles south of Bermuda
Tropical Storm 15L (Nicole) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…taking an aim on Bermuda
TS Nicole will move northward over the next few days, in the general direction of Bermuda, and is expected to become a hurricane within 36 hours…and may eventually impact Bermuda around Thursday
Last week, Nicole briefly became the sixth hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, located well south of Bermuda. Continued organization then led to an upgrade to Category 2 status.
Tropical Storm 15L is currently moving northward at near 6 mph, with another satellite image
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Nicole’s cloud pattern has lost organization since late yesterday. A series of convective bursts over the last 24 hours faded away into a shallow and shapeless cloud mass earlier this morning. Since then, some deep convection has redeveloped over the low-level center but there has been no apparent increase to its organization.
Nicole has been moving slowly northward or 360 degrees at 5 knots per hour. While this general motion should continue today, a leftward bend of the track should occur through the next 48 hours. After that time, global models show Nicole turning northward and then northeastward with an increase in forward speed.
Wind shear is forecast to diminish during the next day or two, as the cyclone traverses near-record warm sea surface temperatures. This suggests that a significant re-intensification is still possible, as the global models continue to show. The only caveat would be to what degree a drier and more stable air, in the wake of Post-Tropical Matthew, would modify as it is at least partially ingested by Nicole’s circulation.
It should be noted that global models show Nicole becoming a large hurricane in about 3 days, with a wide distribution of strong winds over the central Atlantic.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells associated with Nicole should increase on Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nicole)