Tropical Cyclone (14L) Matthew remains active…located about 95 miles southeast of Jacksonville, Florida
Tropical Cyclone (15L) Nicole remains active…located about 335 miles south of Bermuda
Hurricane 14L (Matthew) remains an intense major category 3 hurricane (120 mph sustained winds)
Hurricane Matthew remains a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane…as it brushes the coast of northeast Florida.
The Windytv wind profile of hurricane Matthew
The current wind speed and directions for area around Hurricane Matthew
How strong Matthew is when it affects Georgia and South Carolina is difficult to predict, as it depends on how much time the hurricane spends over land in Florida.
Hurricane 14L is moving towards the north-northwest at near 12 mph.
Hurricane Matthew is Category 3 hurricane, with 120 mph winds.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to improve, with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection. Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane traversing the eye of the hurricane also indicate that Matthew has strengthened.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional intensification today while Matthew approaches the east coast of Florida. After 24 hours, land interaction is likely to cause some weakening, and later in the period increasing wind shear should cause a more rapid decrease in winds.
Aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 10 knots. The steering flow has not changed and Matthew is expected to move around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge located over the western Atlantic during the next 24 to 36 hours.
After that time, the ridge will shift eastward allowing the hurricane to move northward and then sharply turn eastward while it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. By the end of the forecast period the steering pattern is forecast to change again and a weakening cyclone is expected to turn southward.
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida tonight.
2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.
3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.
4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South Carolina.
5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario – the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia.
Here’s the NOAA Precipitation Outlook graphic for the United States today through the next 2-days
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
Graphic map showing the alerts below
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Boca Raton, Florida to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Englewood to Anclote River
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Keys, and the Carolina’s should monitor the progress of Matthew.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting the central Bahamas and these condition will spread into the northwestern Bahamas during the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida within the next several hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.
Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels…
Central and Northwestern Bahamas…10 to 15 feet
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St. Johns River…6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River…3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet…3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach…1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life- threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from Deerfield Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations in the following areas:
The Bahamas…8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina….4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Florida Keys…1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Eastern Cuba…additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20 inches
Central Cuba…additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals of 8 inches
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central and eastern Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Tropical Storm 15L (Nicole) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located 335 miles south of Bermuda
Tropical Storm 15L is nearly stationary, with sustained winds near 70 mph
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Nicole’s cloud pattern hasn’t changed much since the last advisory. Upper-level outflow is restricted over the northern semicircle of the storm.
Although Nicole could reach hurricane strength today, increasing north-northwesterly wind shear should lead to a slow weakening trend, beginning tomorrow.
The forward motion is slowing, and the motion is now estimated to be about 325/5 knots.
The tropical cyclone will move into weak steering currents within the next day or so. A high pressure area is forecast to build to the west and northwest of Nicole during the next couple of days, and this should force some southward component of motion.
Overall, however, the official forecast, like the previous one, shows little overall motion throughout the period.
Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda, and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several days.
Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nicole)
1.) Showers and thunderstorms near the Lesser Antilles are associated with a tropical wave. Although development of this system is not expected, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so as this disturbance moves through the area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Matthew)