Tropical Cyclone (14L) Matthew remains active…located about 295 miles southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida
Tropical Cyclone (15L) Nicole remains active…located about 435 miles south of Bermuda
Hurricane 14L (Matthew) moving through the Bahamas, as an intense major category 3 hurricane (115 mph sustained winds)…and then takes aim on the Florida east coast
NASA satellite image taken today
Hurricane 14L is moving towards the northwest at near 10 mph.
Hurricane Matthew was a weakened a Category 3 hurricane, with 115 mph winds, due to the disruption to the storm caused by clipping both Haiti and Cuba Tuesday. However, the storm is re-organizing over the warm waters of The Bahamas, and poses a serious threat to The Bahamas and southeast United States over the next three days.
The upcoming environment is favorable, and intensification is likely, as Matthew is now moving over very warmer sea waters. It’s not out of the question that Matthew may attain category 4 strength once again Thursday.
Matthew will move northwest through The Bahamas on today into Thursday, with the dangerous right front northeast quadrant, with the strongest winds likely to affect the most populous island in the archipelago…New Providence Thursday morning.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been in the eye of Matthew during the past several hours. Data from those planes indicate that the hurricane is gradually recovering from the passage over the mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti. The eye is becoming better defined on satellite. Based on SFMR winds of 103 kt and a flight-level peak wind of 118 kt, the initial intensity is 105 kt.
The environment between the Bahamas and Florida is favorable for Matthew to restrengthen some during the next couple of days. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase, resulting in gradual weakening.
Fixes from the planes indicate that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at about 8 to 10 knots. The hurricane will be steered toward the northwest during the next day or two, with no significant change in forward speed.
After that time Matthew will move northward very near or over the Florida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
Here’s the NOAA Storm Surge graphic for the Florida and Georgia.
By the end of the forecast period, models have changed significantly since yesterday. Some track models keep the hurricane moving eastward across the Atlantic while others reduce the hurricane’s forward speed with a southward turn.
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the hurricane warning areas in Cuba and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane- force winds offshore.
3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days.
4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario – the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.
Here’s the NOAA Precipitation Outlook graphic for the United States today through the next 2-days
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach to the Savannah River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Florida Gulf Coast from north of Chkoloskee to Suwannee River
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Keys, should monitor the progress of Matthew.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions will gradually diminish over portions of eastern Cuba today. These conditions will continue over the southeastern Bahamas, and will spread over the central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida by early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations in the following areas:
Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic…15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti…8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Eastern Jamaica…additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches
The Bahamas…8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands…2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic…1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Coastal east-central Florida….4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys….1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels…
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey…4 to 6 feet
The Bahamas…10 to 15 feet
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line…3 to 5 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Tropical Storm 15L (Nicole) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located 435 miles south of Bermuda
TS 15L is moving towards the northwest at near 9 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), thunderstorm activity has been bursting since the overnight hours near Nicole’s center, which is located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection.
Nicole’s small circulation has found itself beneath an upper-level low and wind shear axis, so the shear affecting the system does not seem as strong as various large-scale calculations of 25-30 knots from the north would suggest.
The intensity models show very little change in intensity during the next couple of days, and the NHC forecast holds Nicole’s strength through day 3. The models then show a general weakening trend on days 4 and 5.
The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward soon and maintain its speed for the next 24 hours while it moves around a mid-level high. After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough drops southward from New England, causing Nicole to put on the brakes.
While some models show the trough pushing Nicole southwestward, the remainder of the models induce a motion with an eastward component. The NHC forecast continues to favor the eastern models, and the spread among the guidance suggests that Nicole will meander during the day 2-5 time range.
Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nicole)
1.) A tropical wave is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Development of this system is not expected during the next few days while it moves westward at 15 mph, but some development could be possible when the wave reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea early next week. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days as the wave moves through the area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Matthew)