Tropical Cyclone (14L) Matthew remains active…located about 20 miles northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba
Tropical Cyclone (15L) Nicole is now active…located about 505 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Hurricane 14L (Matthew) remains active in the Caribbean Islands …is still an intense major category 4 hurricane (130 mph sustained winds)
Hurricane Matthew is the Caribbean’s first major hurricane since Sandy of 2012. Matthew strengthened to a very unusual category 5 late briefly Friday evening, becoming the first Category 5 Atlantic basin hurricane since Hurricane Felix in early September 2007.
Very dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Matthew has made landfall over the southwestern tip of Haiti, as a category 4 major hurricane! The hurricane is the third strongest one ever recorded in this small nation…and the strongest hurricane in 52 years.
A NASA youtube video showing Major Hurricane Matthew making landfall over western Haiti
In the wake of the great 2010 earthquake, over 50,000 people still live outdoors in makeshift shelters consisting of tarps or tents, and are highly vulnerable to Matthew’s floods and winds. Haiti has been hit by 8 major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes since 1851.
Landfall in Haiti this morning, and on eastern Cuba this evening will disrupt the hurricane’s circulation, and could cause it to weaken to a category 3 storm.
Hurricane 14L is moving towards the north at near 10 mph. Matthew’s Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was quite distinct when it made landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti this morning, but since that time the eye has become obscured on conventional imagery.
A reconnaissance plane measured winds of 118 knots earlier today, but the entire area has not been sampled yet by the plane. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 125 knots in this advisory. Some slight weakening could occur today while Matthew interacts with the high terrain of Cuba and Haiti, but the environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days.
Some weakening is anticipated by the end of the forecast period, due to an increase of the wind shear. Radar fixes from Cuba and satellite data indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 9 knots. Most of the global models show the hurricane taking a turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas, and to the waters just east of Florida.
Beyond 3 days, Matthew is expected to turn northward and then northeastward. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew.
The westward shift in computer model guidance on Hurricane Matthew has increased the likelihood that Matthew could bring major impacts to the Southeast U.S. coast from South Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
The NHC has put the Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County line under a Hurricane Watch, with a Tropical Storm Watch in effect southward from Deerfield Beach to the Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys…including Lake Okeechobee.
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.
2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.
3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.
Here’s the NOAA Precipitation Outlook graphic for the United States today through the next 2-days
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line, southward to Golden Beach, Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti
* Seven Mile Bridge to south of Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, and in Florida Peninsula and the Keys, should monitor the progress of Matthew.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are already affecting the southwestern portion of Haiti, and these conditions will spread northward today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today, the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across the remainder of Haiti today, eastern Cuba later this morning, the southeastern Bahamas later today, and the central and northwestern Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions the Dominican Republic within the warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition are also possible in the Florida tropical storm watch area by early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations in the following areas:
Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic…15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti…8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Eastern Jamaica…4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas…8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands…2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic…1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica…1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida….4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys….1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels…
Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz…7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti…7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey…4 to 6 feet
Jamaica…2 to 4 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti…3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic…1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas…10 to 15 feet
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Tropical Storm 15L (Nicole) is now active in the Atlantic Ocean…located 505 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico
TS 15L is moving towards the northwest at near 8 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system to the northeast of Puerto Rico has become better organized, with some banding features having developed over the eastern portion of the circulation, and satellite data indicates that the circulation is now well-defined.
Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system. Visible satellite images show that the low-level center is near the western edge of the deep convection. The scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 knots. Even stronger wind shear lies ahead for Nicole, and a weakening trend is likely to commence by late tomorrow.
Over the next few days, the forward motion of Nicole is likely to become blocked by a mid-level high to the northwest. Therefore the cyclone is likely to begin meandering later in the forecast period.
Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nicole)
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Matthew)