Tropical Cyclone (14L) Matthew remains active…located about 495 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica
Hurricane 14L (Matthew) remains active in the Caribbean…as a major category 3 hurricane
Hurricane Matthew is the Caribbean’s first major hurricane since Sandy of 2012.
Here’s the radar loop showing Hurricane Matthew, from the Meteorological Department Curacao
Here’s a youtube video showing the progress that Matthew makes, moving from the Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea
Hurricane 14L is moving towards the west-southwest at near 12 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Matthew has continued to intensify this morning. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a peak wind of 99 to 103 knots. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 100 knots for this advisory. The aircraft reported that the central pressure had fallen, and also observed a 16 NM wide eye, that is open to the southwest.
Water vapor imagery shows a well-established poleward outflow channel, with outflow also expanding in the southwest quadrant. This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly wind shear of around 20 knots. Model output shows this shear continuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, models show Matthew weakening during this time.
Some short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible, but the official forecast remains above much of the guidance in the short range, and keeps the intensity at 100 knots through 72 hours. Some weakening is shown by days 4 and 5 due to potential land interaction.
Matthew has been moving west-southwestward during the past few hours, which should continue moving south of due west for the next 12 hours. After that, Matthew should gradually turn poleward. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance, both along and across track. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the south in the first 36 hours due to the initial motion.
It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida.
Even if Matthew stays sufficiently offshore from the East Coast, a threat of dangerous swells, coastal flooding, and beach erosion may occur along parts of the Eastern Seaboard.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Columbia/Venezuela border to Riohacha
Interests along the coasts of Venezuela and Columbia should monitor the progress of Matthew, while interests in Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of this storm. A hurricane watch may be required for Jamaica later today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in Colombia later later today and tonight.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Matthew)