Tropical Cyclone (14L) Matthew remains active…located about 290 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm 14L (Matthew) remains active in the eastern Caribbean…forecast to become a dangerous hurricane soon
A potential impact on parts of the United States next week remains unclear at this time. Various forecast models show potential tracks which Matthew moves north, and then northeast remaining well off the East Coast next week.
Even if Matthew stays offshore from the southeast coast, a threat of dangerous swells, coastal flooding, and beach erosion may come into play along parts of the eastern seaboard.
For now, all interests in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas and United States East Coast should continue to monitor the progress of Matthew.
This is a youtube video taken yesterday when heavy rains moved over St. Lucia
TS 14L is moving towards the west at near 15 mph.
TS Matthew is a large storm, with thunderstorms extending from the northern coast of South America to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.
TS Matthew is expected to have favorable conditions for intensification this weekend as it heads north, with low wind shear, very warm ocean waters, and a very moist atmosphere. The models are strongly suggesting that this storm will become a hurricane, as it makes landfall early next week in the islands, with residents of Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba having to look forward to a possible category 2 hurricane impacting them early next week.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the center of Matthew is exposed to the southwest of the deep convection due to moderate southwesterly wind shear. Despite the shear, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show that Matthew is a little stronger this morning.
Given the current wind shear and structure of Matthew, only slight strengthening is predicted during the next 24 hours. The shear is forecast to slowly decrease over the next few days, although there are some differences in the upper-level wind forecasts.
The NHC forecast assumes that there will be a reduction in shear, and calls for intensification.
The tropical storm is expected to move westward during the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, Matthew should turn northwestward. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast to turn northward.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba
Interests along the coasts of Venezuela and Columbia should monitor the progress of Matthew
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late today.
RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will begin to diminish across the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, with additional amounts of an inch or less expected. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Matthew)