Tropical Cyclone (10L) Ian remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…located about 695 miles east of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone (11L) Julia remains active over Georgia…located about 20 miles northeast of Brunswick, Georgia
Tropical Cyclone (12L) is now active over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean…located about 95 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Storm 10L (Ian) remains active in the Atlantic…although is staying over the open ocean away from land
Tropical Storm Ian is the ninth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. No land areas are forecast to be impacted by Ian in the foreseeable future.
TS 10L is moving towards the north at near 20 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Ian’s center has lost some definition and appears to have re-formed north of the feature we had been tracking. The center remains exposed to the south and southeast of the deep convection due to almost 30 knots of wind shear.
A mid-/upper-level low to the west of Ian, and a mid-tropospheric high to the east, should steer the cyclone northward and north- northeastward during the next day or so. After that time, Ian is expected to accelerate toward the northeast.
Although the wind shear is expected to decrease only slightly, marginally warm waters and Ian’s interaction with the mid-/upper-level low to its west…are expected to foster some strengthening during the next 36 hours.
Ian is then expected to lose the last of its tropical characteristics and become extratropical by 48 hours.
Tropical Storm 11L (Julia) remains active, although will likely weaken as it remains so close to…or over land
Tropical Storm Julia is the 10th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
TS 11L is moving towards the north-northeast at near 6 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Julia is estimated to be maintaining 35 knot winds. Since the system will continue to interact with land, weakening is forecast and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days.
There is a possibility, however, that the system could strengthen if it moves far enough out over water. The center of Julia may be reforming closer to the Georgia coast, although the surface observations are not yet definitive.
The tropical cyclone is likely to remain in weak steering currents, and the track guidance models indicate that some erratic motion is likely over the next couple of days. The official forecast shows a very slow motion after 12 hours.
The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 10 inches along portions of the South Carolina coastline. These rains could result in flash flooding.
>>> Tropical Depression 12L is now active, and will become tropical storm Karl…with a relatively short lifespan expected
TD 12L is moving towards the west-northwest at near 14 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure area over the Cabo Verde Islands has developed a well-defined circulation, and sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical depression.
A low- to mid-level ridge should steer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed after 36 hours. Some strengthening is expected during the next 12-24 hours.
Thereafter, the cyclone is likely to encounter strong westerly wind shear while over relatively cool sea surface temperatures. This combination should lead to weakening, and the intensity forecast shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours.
Near the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models diverge on the evolution of the upper-level winds, with a more favorable pattern. Based on this, the forecast shows some re-intensification by 120 hours.
Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over the Cabo Verde Islands. However, current indications are that the cyclone will not reach tropical-storm strength until it has moved west of the islands. Therefore, watches and warnings are not required at this time.
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Ian)
Tropical Cyclone 11L (Julia)
Tropical Cyclone 12L