Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gaston) remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…located about 600 miles east of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 08L is now active over the Atlantic Ocean…located about 405 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Tropical Cyclones 07L (Gaston) and 08L
Tropical Storm 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic, and should become a hurricane soon…although it remains unlikely to threaten land
Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing
Hurricane 07L is moving toward the northwest at near 10 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the eye was fairly distinct a few hours ago, but recently it has become slightly cloud-filled and the inner-core convection has become less symmetrical. Assuming the slight degradation of the inner core structure to be temporary, a little more strengthening is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Gaston should remain in a low to moderate wind shear environment for the next couple of days, which would allow the hurricane to more or less maintain its intensity through 36-48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, increasing westerly shear should induce weakening.
Gaston’s motion is being partially blocked by a narrow subtropical ridge, and this scenario should continue for the next day or so. The hurricane is expected to gradually work its way through the ridge and, in 24 to 48 hours, begin to move northeastward and east-northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies.
>>> Tropical Depression 08L is now active in the Atlantic…although is expected to remain relatively weak as it moves close to the east coast of the United States
Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing
TD 08L is moving toward the west at near 9 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the area of low pressure located west of Bermuda has been producing intermittent organized deep convection for the last 24 hours or so, and the convection has increased markedly. Given this, and the well-defined center shown by an overnight satellite pass, advisories are now being initiated on this system as a tropical cyclone.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this afternoon. The environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for intensification, with moderate southeasterly to easterly wind shear expected to become southwesterly and increase further in 36 to 48 hours. As a result, only modest strengthening is shown in the official forecast, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm in the next day or two.
After that time, the global models show the cyclone opening up along a frontal zone well offshore of the northeastern United States. The NHC forecast shows dissipation after day 4, but this timing is quite uncertain.
The current forecast keeps the center of the cyclone east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but a tropical storm watch may be needed for that area later today. There will be an increasing feed of tropical moisture to the area, with showers and thunderstorms arriving as TD 08L gets closer to the area…some of which could produce heavy flooding downpours.
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, with an area of disturbed weather, with a medium chance of developing…as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico
There’s an area of disturbed weather that will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico…and may become a tropical depression or storm with time
This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 99L, and is circled in orange in the PDC Atlas above
Here’s a satellite image…with what the computer models are showing what could possibly become Tropical Depression 09L or Tropical Storm Hermine.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is stating that shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the lower Florida Keys.
The low is expected to move westward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days.
This system is then expected to move slowly northward and northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida through Monday.
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and a potential area of disturbed weather coming off of Africa…which has a medium chance of developing within 5-days
>>> Finally, there’s yet another area of disturbed weather, located in the Atlantic Ocean, circled in orange in the PDC Atlas above…which has a medium chance of developing within 5-days
A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of Africa on Tuesday.
Conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system later this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gaston)
NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image
Tropical Cyclone 08L
NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image
1.) A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system later this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic
Caribbean Sea
1.) Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the lower Florida Keys. The low is expected to move westward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days. This system is then expected to move slowly northward and northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida through Monday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
1.) A weak area of low pressure located near the upper Texas coast is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. Surface pressures remain high in the area and the system’s proximity to land is expected to limit significant development while it moves slowly southwestward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent