Tropical Cyclone Earl is now over the very southern Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche)…located about 135 miles east-southeast of Veracruz, Mexico
Tropical Storm Earl continues to maintain tropical storm force winds…and bringing flooding rainfall to a large area
Tropical Storm Earl is moving toward the west at near 10 mph.
Heavy damage to buildings and infrastructure is being reported in Belize, primarily from Earl’s winds and storm surge. Earl made landfall near Belize City, Belize as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds Thursday, August 4. Most of the weather stations in Earl’s path stopped transmitting before the storm’s peak winds arrived, but Half Moon Caye, which received a battering from a portion of Earl’s northern eyewall, recorded a wind gust of 89 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), satellite images and surface observations indicate that a large portion of the circulation is over the southern Bay of Campeche.
It appears that the cloud pattern was beaten hard by the physical terrain, but, one can still see a vigorous cyclonic rotation.
Little change in intensity is expected before Earl moves inland again later today or tonight. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the high terrain of southern Mexico.
The circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 knots. A westward or south-of-due-west track is anticipated until landfall and beyond.
The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre over the area…enhances this rainfall potential.
The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) relayed to NHC that about 7 inches (180 mm) of rain were measured in Chiapas during the last 24 hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area today and tonight.
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
>>> Meanwhile, here is also some concern in the Eastern Pacific, loosely associated with Earl…which is the possible arrival of the remnants of Earl early next week. Earl will cease to exist as a named storm during its long traverse across Mexico during the coming weekend, but if Earl’s remnants manage to cross over Mexico, and arrive over the warm waters off the coast of Acapulco, Mexico, with some spin still intact…regeneration into a tropical storm is possible.
If Earl’s circulation has become unidentifiable by the time it crosses into the Pacific…the new storm would be named Javier. This NHC image shows about where this might happen within 5-days, giving it a medium chance of developing within 5-days.
>>> Finally, A broad surface low pressure system is forecast to develop near the coast of Alabama by Sunday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will bring a moist flow of air over the coast from Alabama to Tampa, resulting in heavy rains.
Water temperatures in the northeast Gulf of Mexico are at near-record warm levels, and the evaporation from these warm waters will provide plenty of moisture to fuel heavy rains.
NHC gave this future disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively.The NHC map showing this area within 5-days.
Regardless of development, coastal regions from New Orleans to Tampa can expect heavy rains exceeding five inches during the coming week, as highlighted in the latest precipitation forecast from NOAA.
There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone Earl
1.) A trough of low pressure is expected to form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend or early next week. Some subsequent development of this system is possible while it remains nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent