Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather 1100 miles southwest of the Azores

The NHC continues pointing out an unusual non-tropical low pressure system centered, being referred to as Invest 90L, located about 1100 miles southwest of the Azores, which is producing a large area of gale force winds…reaching 60 mph (tropical storm force).

Here’s a satellite image of this area, along with a near real time wind profile of this disturbance

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become a subtropical or tropical storm within the next day or so. A subtropical storm displays features of both tropical and non-tropical systems, including a broad wind field, no cold or warm fronts…and generally low-topped thunderstorms displaced from the center of the system.

The current disturbance has a sizable wind field with maximum winds up to 60 mph, and a well-defined center of circulation, and some shower activity is starting to pulse near its low-pressure center.

The cyclone is expected to move eastward to northeastward over the eastern subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of days. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of the eastern Atlantic for the next few days.

Ocean temperatures are on the cool side for a tropical system to develop…although still warm enough for the disturbance to become a subtropical storm. If this storm were to get a name…it would be Alex.

*  Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
*  Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

This is the 5-day graphical tropical weather outlook

Only one January tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic Ocean since record keeping began back in 1851…which was an unnamed 1938 hurricane that became a tropical cyclone on January 3rd well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico