There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico
The NHC continues pointing out an unusual extra-tropical low pressure system centered about 900 miles east of Bermuda, which is producing a large area of gale force winds…with maximum winds reaching 75 mph (Category 1 hurricane-force).
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of the central and eastern Atlantic for the next few days.
Computer models continue to move this system toward the southeast and then east this week, which would put it in a more favorable environment for subtropical development.
Ocean temperatures are at near-record warm levels for this time of year in the waters east of Bermuda (about 3-4F degrees above normal), which is just high enough so that a system like this one…has the potential to become a subtropical storm.
Regardless of development, the storm may bring heavy rains and strong winds in excess of 50 mph to the Azores Islands by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
This is the 5-day graphical tropical weather outlook
Upper-level winds will remain strong in the vicinity of this system, and ocean temperatures will be a marginal 75-77F, suggesting that any potential development would be subtropical rather than tropical. If this storm were to get a name…it would be Alex.
Only one January tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic Ocean since record keeping began back in 1851…which was an unnamed 1938 hurricane that became a tropical storm on January 3rd well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico