Tropical Storm 11L (Joaquin) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 540 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland
Tropical Storm Joaquin remains active in the Atlantic…remaining offshore from land areas
Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical storm
This tropical cyclone is located about 540 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland…moving east-northeast at a fast paced 35 mph.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #40 was 60 knots…with gusts to 75 knots
According to the NHC, satellite images indicate that Joaquin continues to slowly weaken. The low-level center is now about half a degree west of the mid-level circulation, with an area of deep convection noted. Dvorak estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 60 knots.
A gradual spin-down of the tropical cyclone is expected while TS Joaquin moves over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream.
Deep convection should probably disappear tonight when the sea water temperatures become much cooler, so the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become post-tropical at that time.
The cyclone will likely become a more classic extra-tropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to form near the center.
Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical high pressure ridge. This motion should continue for another 24 hours or so.
After that time, the guidance is in good agreement that this system should decelerate and turn east-southeastward due to it coming under the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe.
>>> Meanwhile, the NHC is no longer investigating the area of disturbed weather, which was being referred to as 91L…several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
NOAA satellite imagery shows that former 91L is very unimpressive…with no spin and some disorganized heavy thunderstorms.
This disturbance will bring some heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday, but none of the models for forecasting tropical cyclone development, or anything else in the Atlantic…becoming active over the next 5-days.
Tropical Cyclone 11L (Joaquin)
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico