Tropical Depression 10L (Ida) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 1195 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Depression 10L (Ida) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and will slowly strengthen over the open ocean
This tropical depression is located about 1195 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands…moving north-northeast at 5 mph.
According to the NHC, there has been no significant change in the satellite presentation of the cyclone. Ida is a wind sheared system, and consists of a broad circulation with a cyclonically curved convective cloud bands around the eastern side.
The hostile wind shear environment will likely continue today, but both the operational SHIPS and the experimental SHIPS, based on ECMWF fields, lower the wind shear allowing for some restrengthening.
On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for little change in intensity during the next day or two, and some minor increase of the winds after that time.
Ida has begun to move toward the north-northeast at 4 knots. The system will become completely detached from the mid-level trough in about 12 to 24 hours, and will be slowly steered toward the north and north-northwest…by the flow surrounding a developing subtropical ridge.
After that time, a stronger high pressure ridge will force Ida to turn westward, with some increase in forward speed. Track guidance is very consistent with this westward turn, however, by then, the status of Ida is highly uncertain. Ida could still be a tropical cyclone as indicated in the NHC forecast, or it will be degenerating into a trough as indicated by the GFS model.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #25 was 30 knots…with gusts to 40 knots
>>> There’s now an area of disturbed weather, located over the western Caribbean…stretching into Central America. This land interaction, coupled with unfavorable wind shear aloft, will limit development at this time.
Later this weekend into early next week, this disturbance may move over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. However, even then, conditions won’t be that ripe for development.
Here’s a satellite image of this area
This area has not been given an investigation number, and the NHC is giving it a 0% chance of development over the next 2-days.
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Ida)
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is not expected during the next several days due to interaction with land and unfavorable upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend, and even though upper-level winds are not expected to be particularly favorable, some development is possible early next week while the system moves northward over the central Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico