Tropical Storm 10L (Ida) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 1055 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Storm 10L (Ida) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and will slowly strengthen over the open ocean
This tropical storm is located about 1055 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands…moving east at 5 mph.
According to the NHC, TS Ida’s cloud pattern has deteriorated since yesterday, and the upper-level outflow is very disrupted due to wind shear. The center of the cyclone has been placed in the middle of a couple of low cloud swirls, and to the west of a small area of deep convection.
Both ECMWF and GFS SHIPS intensity models indicate that the wind shear has peaked, and a gradual relaxation should soon begin. However, it will take 36 to 48 hours for the shear to be low enough to favor re-strengthening.
On this basis, only a small increase in intensity is forecast beyond that time.
The cyclone, as anticipated, has become well embedded in the base of an upper-level trough, and is drifting eastward at 4 knots. Most of the global models lift the trough out, and keep the storm moving very slowly within weak steering currents for the next day or two.
After that time, the subtropical ridge is forecast to build over the Atlantic, and this flow pattern will force the cyclone to move toward the north and then to the north-northwest. For the next 3 days or so, the guidance is in good agreement showing a northward turn.
The model spread increases after four days, but the general trend is to keep the storm moving slowly while is trapped south of the subtropical ridge.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #21 was 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots
>>> The area of disturbed weather, which was being referred to as Invest 97L, is no longer being carried by the NHC. However, it is bringing heavy rains to the waters just offshore from the Outer Banks of North Carolina, where a high surf Advisory remains in force for waves of 6-9 feet.
The disturbance is under strong wind shear, and there’s lots of dry air around it as well…which is limiting development. The NWS long range radar image from the Wilmington, North Carolina office shows this area of precipitation offshore.
Former Invest 97L will move slowly west-southwest over the next few days, bringing gusty winds and occasional heavy rains to the coast of North Carolina today, and to the coast of South Carolina Thursday.
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Ida)
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
1.) A broad area of low pressure could form early next week over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Development, if any, should be slow to occur as the system drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 20 percent
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico