Tropical Storm 10L (Ida) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 1030 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Storm 10L (Ida) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and will slowly strengthen over the open ocean with time
This tropical storm is located about 1030 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands…moving north-northwest at 7 mph.
According to the NHC, tropical storm Ida continues to be a wind sheared system, with the low-level center located to the northwest of an area of very deep convection. The upper-level outflow in the southern half of the cyclone has become better defined since yesterday, but it is not existent elsewhere.
This tropical cyclone is embedded within an uncommon flow pattern. It is located at the southern end of a mid-level trough, which is forcing the storm to move east-southeastward at about 7 knots, and also causing wind shear.
The evolution of this trough will be crucial for the future of Ida. Unanimously, global models keep the cyclone drifting generally eastward for the next 2 days or so, while embedded within the trough. After that time, all models forecast the trough to lift out, leaving Ida south of an amplifying ridge.
This forecast pattern should result in a decrease of the shear with favorable conditions for strengthening, and a slow motion of the cyclone toward the north-northwest. It is interesting to note the current agreement of all global models with this scenario, and at long range, with the GFS and ECMWF models primarily forecast a significant strengthening of Ida.
Given the uncommon pattern and the currently hostile environment, the NHC forecast keeps the cyclone with the same intensity for the next day or two, and allows for some intensification once Ida becomes detached from the trough.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #17 was 40 knots…with gusts to 50 knots
>>> Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97L, is located offshore from the coast of North Carolina. This area is close enough to the coast however, that it is bringing heavy rains to the Outer Banks of NC.
Here’s the long range radar image from Newport/Morehead, NC
Invest 97L will move slowly west-southwest the next few days, bringing strong winds and occasional heavy rains to the coast of North Carolina today into Wednesday…and then to the coast of South Carolina Wednesday into Thursday.
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Ida)
1.) A non-tropical low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are marginally conducive for development, and this system could possibly acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico