Tropical Storm 10L (Ida) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 995 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Storm 10L (Ida) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and will slowly strengthen over the open ocean
This tropical storm is located about 995 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands…moving north-northwest at 7 mph.
According to the NHC, TS Ida has been producing a large cluster of very deep convection overnight into this morning. The tropical cyclone, however, is still being affected by wind shear, as the low-level center can be seen in visible satellite imagery just northwest of the convection, and this was confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass.
The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become a little more conducive for strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and the NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification.
After that time, northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase as an upper-level trough to the northeast of Ida retrogrades westward. This could cause some weakening, but most of the intensity guidance shows little change in strength during this time, and the NHC forecast maintains an intensity of 55 knots from 24 to 72 hours.
Later in the forecast period, the global models take the upper-level trough northeastward and develop a more favorable upper-air pattern over the tropical cyclone, which should allow for strengthening by days 4 and 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory.
The steering currents around this tropical cyclone are forecast to further weaken during the next day or so as the mid- to upper-level trough retrogrades westward. Ida should become nearly stationary tonight, then meander eastward or east-southeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the mid- to upper-level flow becomes northwestward.
After 72 hours, when the trough moves northeastward, Ida should turn northwestward at a faster forward speed. The extended NHC forecast keeps what may become hurricane Ida later this week…from impacting land.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #13 was 45 knots…with gusts to 55 knots
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Ida)
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico