Tropical Depression 09L remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 955 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Depression 10L is now active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 870 miles west-southwest of Cape Verde Islands
Tropical Depression 09L remains active in the Atlantic…and will quickly weaken over the open ocean
This tropical depression is located about 955 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles…moving west-northwest at 8 mph.
According to the NHC, after the burst of convection overnight, wind shear and dry air appear to be getting the best of the depression, with no deep convection remaining near the low-level center. If deep convection does not return, the depression could be declared a remnant low by tonight.
Weakening is forecast as the depression and its remnant low gradually spin down and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.
Visible imagery shows the low-level center has been moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of northwest at 7 knots. The initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward shift of the NHC track forecast this cycle of about a degree.
The NHC forecast shows the shallow cyclone moving generally west-northwestward through dissipation as it is steered by the low-level ridge to the north.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #9 was 25 knots…with gusts to 35 knots
Tropical Depression 10L is now active in the Atlantic…and will slowly strengthen over the open ocean
This tropical depression is located about 870 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands…moving west-northwest at 9 mph.
According to the NHC, satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure over the tropical eastern Atlantic has acquired sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical depression.
The low-level center appears embedded beneath a relatively small cluster of deep convection, but convective banding is also increasing to the west and north.
The depression is located near the southwestern edge of a mid-level anticyclone, giving the cyclone an initial motion of northwest at 8 knots.
The anticyclone is expected to move westward in tandem with the depression over the next couple of days, keeping it on a general west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period.
By days 4 and 5, however, there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast. The GFS and GFDL show the cyclone feeling the influence of an amplifying deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic, which turns the depression northward.
The ECMWF and UKMET, on the other hand, keep the ridge as the dominant influence and continue a west-northwestward motion.
Due to the large spread in the guidance, the official forecast shows the cyclone slowing down considerably by days 4 and 5, and is a little west of the model consensus aids at those times.
The environment looks conducive for at least gradual strengthening during the forecast period. Sea surface temperatures are warm, vertical wind shear should remain generally low, and environmental moisture patterns appear favorable for at least the next two days.
Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models show the cyclone threading the needle beneath a narrow upper-level ridge, with mid-level dry air possibly getting into the western part of the cyclone’s circulation. This pattern makes the intensity forecast complicated because hostile upper-level winds won’t be too far away, and the ultimate strength of the cyclone will depend heavily on its eventual track. For now, the NHC official forecast shows only gradual strengthening through day 4.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #1 was 25 knots…with gusts to 35 knots
>>> Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather, circled in yellow above, which is located just to the east of the northern Florida Peninsula today.
NHC is giving this area 2-day and 5-day odds of development at a low 20%…which then increases to a medium 40% chance.
This system is expected to move northeastward away from the southeast coast of the United States, although spread heavy rains over portions of the Florida peninsula, and coastal Georgia and South Carolina today.
Here’s the radar image from the NWS Jacksonville, Florida office
Tropical Cyclone 09L
Tropical Cyclone 10L
1.) A large area of disturbed weather extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent Atlantic Ocean is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level trough. An area of low pressure has developed east of the northern Florida peninsula overnight, and there is some potential for this low to develop into a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next few days as it moves slowly northeastward off the southeast coast of the United States. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico