Tropical Depression 09L remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 1070 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Depression 09L remains active in the Atlantic…and will quickly weaken over the open ocean
This tropical depression is located about 1070 miles east of the Lesser Antilles…moving northwest at 6 mph.
According to the NHC, the center of the depression can be seen in visible imagery exposed to the west of what remains of the deep convection, due to about 25 knots of wind shear over the system.
The environmental conditions become even less favorable with time, with the wind shear forecast to continue, while the cyclone moves into an increasingly dry environment.
These factors should result in slow weakening, and the NHC forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, with dissipation expected in 4 to 5 days.
The track forecast philosophy has not changed, as the weakening system should move generally northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours, and then turn west-northwestward as a shallower system.
This forecast is similar to the previous one updated for the initial position and motion. There are a couple of alternate scenarios, however. The depression or its remnants could merge with the disturbance to its east,or survive as its own entity a little longer.
However, the NHC track forecast continues to favor a solution with a weakening tropical cyclone…that remains separate from the disturbance to the east and dissipates by 5 days.
>>> Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather, circled in red above, is located about 600 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Island, and continues showing signs of organization…and potential development.
This disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 95L, has a good chance of developing into what would be called tropical depression 10L …and if it were to strengthen further would become tropical storm Ida.
NHC is giving this area 2-day and 5-day odds of development at a high 70%…which becomes a higher 80% chance.
>>> Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather, circled in yellow above, which is located in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico…and extends over southern Florida.
Here’s a satellite image of this system
NHC is giving this area 2-day and 5-day odds of development at a low 10%…which then has a slightly higher 30% chance.
This system is expected to move northeastward and spread heavy rains over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next day or two.
Here’s the radar image from the NWS Key West, Florida office
Tropical Cyclone 09L
1.) Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has changed little in organization during the past few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or two while this system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
1.) A large area of disturbed weather extending from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico northeastward across Florida is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level trough. This system is expected to move northeastward and spread heavy rains over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next day or two. A low pressure area could form over the southwestern Atlantic this weekend, and conditions there could become a little more conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico