Tropical Cyclone (Bertha) is active in the Caribbean Sea…located approximately 70 miles northeast of Barbados
Tropical storm Bertha, the Atlantic’s 2nd tropical cyclone of the season…is moving west-northwestwards out of the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Islands
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), this newly formed tropical cyclone is located about 70 miles northeast of Barbados…and 150 miles east-southeast of Martinique.
TS Bertha was moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph, with this general movement expected to continue for the next two days. Bertha is expected to move through the Lesser Antilles tonight, and then approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday.
Despite being a tropical storm now, the organization of this system is rather ragged, primarily due to the 15-20 knot (17-23 mph) southwesterly wind shear…and the inhibiting aspects of dry air in the vicinity.
The current strength at the time of this writing (advisory #3) is 50 mph. Due to the marginal environmental factors described above, TS Bertha will remain at near 50 mph through the next 72 hours or. Thereafter, conditions should improve somewhat…with a slight increase to 60 mph sustained winds in about 96 hours.
The NHC states that an alternative scenario is that a combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48 hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when the system reaches the more favorable environment.
The current watches and warnings in effect for TS Bertha as of mid-morning today…include a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia, Dominica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the eastern Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to Isla Saona.
Several of the computer models showing TS Bertha moving over the southeastern Bahamas, Turk, Caicos Islands later this weekend…with a turn to the northeast expected early next week…without impacting the southeast coast of the United States.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Cyclone Bertha
Tropical Cyclone Bertha
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones