Tropical Depression 09L is now active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 1215 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Depression 09L is now active in the Atlantic, which may briefly become tropical storm Ida…before quickly weakening thereafter
This tropical depression is located about 1215 miles east of the Lesser Antilles…moving north-northwest at 8 mph.
According to the NHC, organized convection associated with the area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic has now increased to the point that the system is considered a tropical cyclone.
Some southwesterly wind shear is already affecting the cyclone, with most of the convection displaced east and north of the estimated center position.
The environment only becomes less favorable from this point forward, with the shear forecast to quickly increase in 12 to 24 hours. and remain high through the remainder of the forecast period.
In addition, the southwesterly flow aloft will bring dry mid- to upper-level air over the cyclone. As a result, only slight strengthening is shown in the NHC forecast following the trend of most of the intensity guidance.
The cyclone is expected to weaken to a remnant low by 72 hours. After that time, the GFS and ECMWF models show the system weakening and perhaps opening up into a trough in about 5 days, so the official forecast shows dissipation at that time.
A north-northwestward to northwestward motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by 96 hours as the shallow cyclone comes under the steering influence of the low-level trade wind flow.
>>> Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather, circled in red above, is located well southwest of the Cape Verde Islands…and continues showing definite signs of organization.
This disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 95L, will likely follow a path similar to TD 09L…turning west-northwest or northwestwards before reaching the Leeward Islands.
This area has a very good chance of developing into what will be called tropical depression 10L …and if it were to strengthen further, it would become tropical storm Ida or Joaquin. This of course will depend upon whether TD 09L strengthens briefly into a tropical storm…or not.
NHC is giving this area 2-day and 5-day odds of development at a high 70%…which becomes a higher 80% chance.
Tropical Cyclone 09L
1.) A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico