There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico
>>> There continues to be an area of disturbed weather, circled in orange above, which is being referred to as Invest 93L…located in the central Atlantic Ocean.
This area has a chance of developing into what will be called tropical depression 09L with time…and if it were to strengthen further, it would become tropical storm Ida.
As the models are showing, this system looks destined to move generally towards the northwest, which in turn would keep it away from the Leeward Islands.
NHC is giving this area a 2-day medium 60% chance of developing…which remains at 60% for the 5-day odds of development
>>> A second area of disturbed weather, circled in orange above, is located well south of the Cape Verde Islands…and is now showing definite signs of organization.
This disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 95L, will likely follow a path similar to 93L…turning west-northwest or northwestwards before reaching the Leeward Islands.
As noted for Invest 93L above, this area has a chance of developing into what will be called tropical depression 09L …and if it were to strengthen further, it would become tropical storm Ida.
NHC is giving this area 2-day and 5-day odds of development at a medium 50%…which becomes a high 80% chance.
>>> Finally, there’s another area which is active in the far western Gulf of Mexico, being referred to as Invest 94L.
This system has now moved inland near Tampico, Mexico…which will keep it from becoming a tropical cyclone. However, heavy rains will bring locally heavy rains over the area…leading to flooding and transportation problems.
The Gulf is very warm in this area, which is favorable, although land interaction will continue to be the primary limiting factor.
NHC is giving this area under investigation a 2-day and 5-day odds of development at a low near 0% and near 0% chance, respectively.
1.) A low pressure area located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this low is still possible during the next couple of days while it moves generally northwestward. After that time, however, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
1.) A broad low pressure system is located about 375 miles south of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
1.) A low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has moved inland near Tampico, Mexico. Although tropical cyclone development is no longer expected due to land interaction, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of eastern Mexico during the next couple of days as the system moves farther inland. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low near 0 percent
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico