There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, circled in red above, which is being referred to as Invest 93L…located in the central Atlantic Ocean.
This area has a very good chance of developing into what will be called tropical depression 09L soon…and if it were to strengthen further, it would become tropical storm Ida.
As the models are showing, this system looks destined to move rather quickly northward, which in turn would keep it away from land…which is a good thing.
NHC is giving this area a 2-day high 80% chance of developing…which increases to an even higher 90% for the 5-day odds of development
>>> A tropical wave, circled in yellow above, is located just offshore the west coast of Africa…and producing disorganized shower activity.
This wave will likely follow a path similar to 93L…turning northwards well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
NHC is giving this area 2-day and 5-day odds of development at a low near 0%…which becomes a more likely medium 40% chance.
>>> Finally, there’s another area which is active in the far western Gulf of Mexico, being referred to as Invest 94L.
According to most of the models this system won’t likely have enough time to develop into a tropical cyclone…before it moves inland over the eastern Mexican coast. However, since it is expected to remain nearly stationary for the next day or two, it could become a tropical depression briefly.
The Gulf is very warm in this area, which is favorable, although land interaction will be the primary limiting feature.
NHC is giving this area under investigation a 2-day and 5-day odds of development at a low 20% and 30% chance, respectively.
1.) A well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing minimal shower activity. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this system could still become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves generally northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
1.) A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this wave during the next several days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
1.) Shower activity has changed little in association with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves little. After a couple of days, a slow west-northwestward motion toward Mexico is expected and land interaction should limit development. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft originally scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low 30 percent
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico