Tropical Depression 07L (Grace) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 1235 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Depression 07L (Grace) is weakening, as it moves through the central Atlantic…to be a post-tropical cyclone within 36 hours
This tropical depression is located about 1235 miles east of the Lesser Antilles…moving westward at 20 mph.
According to the NHC, after the overnight burst of deep convection, thunderstorm activity has diminished, and the overall cloud pattern remains disorganized.
Data from a recent ASCAT overpass show that Grace’s maximum winds have decreased to near 30 knots, so the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression on this advisory.
The tropical cyclone is forecast to move through an environment of increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air for the next few days. These unfavorable factors should cause the system to weaken further, and to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area over the next day or two.
The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is slightly below the latest intensity model consensus. It is possible that Grace could open up into a wave during the next few days, as indicated by the global models.
The cyclone continues to move westward at a fairly rapid pace, with the motion estimate remaining at 275/17 knots.
The steering pattern is expected to remain uncomplicated. Grace or its remnant should continue to move west or slightly north of west, to the south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge of high pressure throughout the forecast period. The official track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains close to the dynamical model consensus.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #13 was 35 mph sustained winds
>>> Meanwhile, the area circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 92L, is located about 300 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
This disturbance will remain near stationary for a day or two, and then move northward at 5-10 mph starting tomorrow.
It has a medium chance of developing during the next 48 hours, which remains with a continued moderate chance within the next 5-days.
>>> Finally, the area circled in yellow above is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico just to the east of Apalachicola, Florida
Here’s a NOAA satellite image
This disturbance will move inland over the Florida Panhandle today, and development is not likely…although it will bring heavy rainfall over northern Florida and southeast Georgia for a couple of days
It has a low chance of developing during the next 48 hours, which remains with a continued low chance within the next 5-days
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)
1.) An area of cloudiness and showers located about 300 miles east- southeast of Bermuda is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days while the system remains nearly stationary for the next day or so, and then moves northward at 5 to 10 mph by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
1.) A weak area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico just to the east of Apalachicola, Florida, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system will move inland over the Florida Panhandle later this morning, and development is not likely. Locally heavy rainfall should affect portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico