Tropical Depression 06L (Fred) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 1275 miles southwest of the Azores
Tropical Depression 06L (Fred) is weakening, as it moves through the central Atlantic…to be a post-tropical cyclone within 24 hours
This tropical depression is located about 1275 miles southwest of the Azores…moving west-northwestward at 9 mph.
According to the NHC, TD Fred consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent bursts of deep convection. There has been no scatterometer data over the tropical cyclone for several hours, but it appears that the circulation is not as vigorous as it was yesterday.
The wind shear is forecast to remain high during the next 48 hours or so, resulting in additional weakening. Fred is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Saturday, however, most of the global models suggest that the shear near the system could relax in 3 days.
If Fred still exists by then, and given that the ocean is anomalously warm in the North Atlantic, there is a chance of regeneration. This would likely occur after Fred, or its remnants recurve into the mid-latitude prevailing westerlies.
The depression is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 knots, steered by a subtropical high to its north. A strong mid-latitude trough is forecast by the global models to deepen in the central Atlantic during the next 2 days, and this pattern will force Fred to recurve northeastward.
This is indicated in the NHC forecast, which follows the reliable dynamical guidance very closely. It is interesting to note that the GFS global model in the past couple of runs keeps Fred lingering across the North Atlantic for more than a week.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #23 was 35 mph sustained winds
>>> Meanwhile, the area circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 91L, has moved offshore from the west coast of Africa…and is now in the Atlantic Ocean.
On the current path, moving westward at between 15-20 mph, it will move within a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde islands over the weekend.
It has a medium chance of developing during the next 48 hours, which remains with a continued moderate chance within the next 5-days.
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)
1.) A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles off the west coast of Africa is expected to move south of the Cape Verde Islands tonight and Saturday. This system continues to show signs of organization and has the potential for some development as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico