Tropical Storm 06L (Fred) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 760 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
Tropical storm 06L (Fred) continues to hang in there, as it moves into the central Atlantic…to be a post-tropical cyclone within 24 hours
Here’s a near real time wind profile of this storm…in relation to the Cape Verde Islands
This tropical storm is located about 760 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands…moving west-northwestward at 9 mph.
According to the NHC, as anticipated, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed most of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone consists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds.
Just like yesterday, a few new convective cells are redeveloping to the north of the center. Assuming that the winds are gradually decaying, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 knots.
The strong upper-level winds affecting Fred are forecast to continue creating a very hostile environment for this tropical cyclone. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 12 to 24 hours.
By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not dissipated, models are showing less wind shear. This combined with the presence of anomalous warm waters in the North Atlantic, will provide a small opportunity for Fred to redevelop some as indicated in the NHC forecast.
A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic is steering Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 knots.
In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the northwest and north.
After 3 days, the system will then recurve toward the northeast around the ridge.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #19 was 40 mph sustained winds
>>> Meanwhile, the area circled in yellow above, which is still over the west coast of Africa, is forecast to move westward into the Atlantic Ocean.
It has a low chance of developing during the next 48 hours, which increases to a moderate chance within the next 5-days.
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)
1.) A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa later today. This system has some potential for slow development as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico