Tropical Storm 05L (Erika) is now active over the Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 730 miles east of the Leeward Islands
Tropical cyclone 05L (Erika) is taking aim on the Caribbean Islands, as a tropical storm…and eventually to category 1 hurricane strength
This area is located about 730 miles east of the Leeward Islands…moving westward at a quick paced 20 mph.
According to the NHC, the cloud pattern of the system has deteriorated this morning, and deep convection is rather limited. Microwave and high-resolution visible imagery indicates that the center is to the north of the main area of deep convection.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate TS Erika later today and should provide a good estimate of the strength of the system.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the future environment of the tropical cyclone will be characterized by marginal humidity and around 15 to 20 knots of wind shear. This should allow for only slow strengthening at best.
Given the current state of the system and the possibility of stronger shear, however, there is less than usual confidence in the NHC intensity forecast.
Over the next couple of days, TS Erika should be steered west-northwestward. Later in the forecast period, the track models diverge, with some models taking the system more to the north and east…and others farther west. Given the significant spread in the guidance in 3 to 5 days, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is low.
The models should have more to work with as they make their flights into the storm tonight, since they will have data from the Hurricane Hunters to work with. The NOAA jet is in the air today, trying to characterize the upper-air steering currents, and other relevant atmospheric conditions.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #3 was 45 mph winds
Tropical Storm Erika has triggered a Tropical Storm Watch for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius today.
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Erika)
1.) A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for the development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
There are no active tropical cyclones
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico