Tropical cyclone 04L (Danny) remains active in the central Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 930 miles east of the Leeward Islands
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for Hurricane Danny
NHC forecast track through the Caribbean Islands
Hurricane 04L (Danny) remains active in the central Atlantic, and has increased to category 2 level…as it heads towards the Caribbean Islands
This area is located about 930 miles east of the Leeward Islands…moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
According to the NHC, Hurricane Danny has continued to strengthen during the past several hours. The small eye has become better defined, and it is now embedded in a circular central dense overcast. In addition, the ragged outer banding has increased in coverage and now surrounds the central convection.
It is notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggests that low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone, and pushed the drier air farther away. This could be helping both the intensification and the increase in outer banding.
Hurricane Danny is expected to turn more westward with some increase in forward speed. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and forecasts Danny to be near the Leeward Islands in about 72 hours, near Puerto Rico in about 96 hours, and near Hispaniola in about 120 hours.
Danny is currently in an environment of light wind shear. However, it is about to encounter increasing upper-level southwesterly flow associated with a trough of low pressure over the northeastern Caribbean, with the shear forecast to increase to over 20 knots by 96 hours.
This, combined with the abundant dry air remaining along the forecast track, should cause Danny to weaken below hurricane strength as it approaches the Caribbean islands.
A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and around Danny this afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon. These data will provide a better assessment of the intensity and structure of the hurricane.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #13 was 90 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 110 knots.
>>> Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather offshore to the south of Bermuda, circled in yellow above, which has a low chance of developing over the next 2-days
This disturbance takes on a medium chance of developing over the next 5-day period.
This area is being referred to as Invest 97L, and here’s a satellite image...along with what the computer models are showing
Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane 4L (Danny)
NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
1.) A broad non-tropical area of low pressure is located a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda. This system is interacting with an upper-level low and is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly to the east of the surface low. Environmental conditions could support some tropical or subtropical development while this system moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic Ocean through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
2.) A tropical wave located just off of the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
3.) Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Some development of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Caribbean Sea
There are no active tropical cyclones
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico