Tropical cyclone 04L (Danny) remains active in the central Atlantic Ocean…and is located approximately 1090 miles east of the Windward Islands
Hurricane 04L (Danny) remains active in the central Atlantic, and will remain at the category 1 level…as it heads towards the Caribbean Islands
This area is located about 1090 miles east of the Windward Islands…moving west-northwestward at about 12 mph.
According to the NHC, Hurricane Danny’s cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous advisory, and a 10 NM diameter eye has become embedded in the center of a small central dense overcast.
Conventional and microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small tropical cyclone. Satellite fixes indicate that Danny is now moving west-northwestward at 10 knots. The latest model guidance remains in very good agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48-72 hours.
A mid- to upper-level trough north of Bermuda is forecast by the global models to begin lifting out to the north in 96-120 hours, which should allow the subtropical ridge to the north of Danny to build back westward, forcing Danny on a more westward track on days 4 and 5.
Danny’s compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously difficult to forecast. Low wind shear conditions are expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further strengthening during that time.
However, the cyclone continues to be surrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core and disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly, and increase to near 15 knots. As a result, Danny is expected to be weakening as it approaches the Leeward Islands.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #9 was 65 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 80 knots.
>>> Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather offshore from the Florida and Georgia border, circled in yellow above, which has a low chance of developing over the next 2-days
This disturbance takes on a medium chance of developing over the next 5-day period.
Hurricane 4L (Danny)
1.) A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms to the southeast through southwest of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within this trough over the western Atlantic during the next day or two, and environmental conditions should support some subsequent tropical or subtropical development over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
2.) A tropical wave that has emerged off of the west coast of Africa several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become marginally favorable for some development of this system over the weekend and into early next week while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
There are no active tropical cyclones
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico