Tropical cyclone 04L remains active in the central Atlantic Ocean…it was located approximately 1385 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Storm 04L remains active in the central Atlantic…and will be strengthening into a hurricane in 36-48 hours
This area is located about 1385 miles east of the Lesser Antilles…moving westward at about 12 mph.
According to the NHC, while there has not been much overall change to Danny’s curved-band cloud pattern, there is evidence in satellite imagery of increased inner-core structural organization since yesterday. Cloud top temperatures, however, have warmed in recent hours.
There is nothing obvious that would impede gradual intensification during the next few days, except for the possible entrainment of dry air associated with a Saharan Air Layer following the cyclone to the north.
Around the time Danny approaches the Lesser Antilles in 3 to 5 days, global models have divergent solutions regarding the strength and position of the mid-oceanic trough, which will ultimately affect Danny’s intensity.
Recent fixes indicate that Danny’s forward speed has decreased slightly. An enhanced mid-oceanic trough, extending from the northeastern Atlantic to the Caribbean Sea, is forecast to keep the subtropical ridge to the north of Danny somewhat weak over the next few days. This should result in Danny’s continued movement toward the west or west-northwest across the tropical Atlantic.
The cyclone’s heading late in the forecast period should largely be a function of the depth of the system. A weaker Danny would move westward faster. A stronger system would tend to gain more latitude.
There are no land areas or islands in the path of this tropical cyclone westward…at least through most of this coming weekend.
The storm is expected to reach hurricane strength on Friday morning…and may strike the Caribbean Islands as a hurricane.
Given the dry air and wind shear in place over the eastern Caribbean Sea, it’s possible that this system may weaken once it reaches the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles. Nonetheless, interests in the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico…should monitor the progress of Danny.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #5 was 45 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 55 knots.
Tropical Storm 4L (Danny)
1.) A non-tropical area of low pressure could form within a couple of hundred miles of Bermuda over the western Atlantic Ocean in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally favorable for some tropical or subtropical development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
There are no active tropical cyclones
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico