Tropical cyclone 04L is now active in the central Atlantic Ocean…it was located approximately 1665 miles east of the Windward Islands
Tropical Depression 04L is now active in the central Atlantic…and will be strengthening into a tropical storm named Danny
This area is located about 1665 miles east of the Windward Islands…moving westward at about 13 mph.
According to the NHC, the low pressure system that has been moving westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic the past few days, has finally acquired enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone.
Upper-level outflow is good to the south and fair to the north.
The global and regional models are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge of high pressure for the next 48-72 hours…accompanied by a decrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness in this ridge.
After that time, the ridge is expected to build back in as a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn more westward, and accelerate through the remainder of the forecast period.
The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.
However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 knots, the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out.
There are no land areas or islands in the path of this tropical cyclone westward.
The NHC noted that gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, taking on the name Danny. The storm is expected to reach hurricane strength on Friday, August 21st.
Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #1 was 30 knot sustained winds…with gusts to near 35 knots.
Tropical Depression 4L is now active, with sustained winds of 35 mph, and is located about 1665 miles east of the Windward Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing. This depression is expected to become tropical storm Danny soon.
1.) A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple of hundred miles of Bermuda over the western Atlantic Ocean in a few days. Environmental conditions could support some tropical or subtropical development of the system by the weekend while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
There are no active tropical cyclones
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico