Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

By: PDC
June 6, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Colin) remains active…and is now located about 245 miles west of Tampa, Florida

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 03L (Colin)

TS Colin NHC forecast track across Florida into Georgia

Tropical Storm Colin is bringing rain and gusty winds to the west coast of Florida

Here’s the latest satellite image of TS Colin, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a recent view of a NASA satellite image of Colin in the Gulf of Mexico / A NASA satellite image showing where the heaviest rains were located

Here’s the combined radar images showing precipitation across the southeast United States

Despite its disorganized structure, Tropical Storm Colin gained a bit of strength Sunday night, as it continued moving towards an expected landfall tonight along the Big Bend of Florida’s northwest Gulf Coast.

The satellite presentation of Colin does not resemble that of a classic tropical cyclone, with the thunderstorm activity and strong winds well to the east of the center.

Satellite, buoy, and the earlier aircraft data indicate that the center is within a large area of light and variable winds.

The next reconnaissance aircraft will be in the system again this morning. The strong southwesterly wind shear and very poor organization of the system, suggest that significant strengthening is not likely…before Colin reaches the coast of Florida later today.

The global models show some deepening when the cyclone moves near the coast of the southeastern United States.

On Tuesday, Colin is expected to move northeastward at a faster forward speed.

Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from the center of Colin, it’s important to not focus on the exact forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding will begin affecting portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon, well in advance of the center’s nearing the coast.

Torrential downpours will likely be the most widespread impact from tropical storm Colin. A large area of heavy rain this morning extended from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina, with intense rain bands streaming northward into Florida’s West Coast.

A gradual curve to the right will take Colin across the Florida Peninsula overnight, with the storm emerging over the Atlantic Ocean, just off the Southeast coast on Tuesday. Computer models agree that Colin will hug the coast while gaining forward speed on Tuesday, with the center likely just southeast of the Outer Banks by Tuesday afternoon…and well east of the coast by Tuesday night.

The well-defined steering currents will likely keep TS Colin from attempting any leftward curve, that could hook it into the East Coast. Colin may reach its peak intensity as a strong tropical storm or post-tropical cyclone late Tuesday…as it moves well east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Colin is the earliest “C” storm in Atlantic history!