Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

By: PDC
June 1, 2016

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…over the coastal areas of the southeast United States

Former tropical cyclone Bonnie is over the Carolina coastal waters…with a continued threat of heavy rain in parts of North Carolina

Here’s the latest satellite image of this area – along with a closer look at this former TC

Satellite loops show that the remains of Tropical Storm Bonnie, located off the southeast coast of North Carolina, have become more organized. Active thunderstorms have increased, and the system has acquired more spin, thanks to the fact that what’s left of Bonnie is over the relatively warm 79°F waters of the Gulf Stream…along with fairly light wind shear aloft.

Hurricane Hunters will investigate former Bonnie Thursday afternoon, as the disturbance heads slowly east-northeastwards out to sea. Former Bonnie is expected to bring 1-2″ of rain to extreme eastern North Carolina through Thursday.

Wind shear is projected to remain light to moderate during the next 48 hours. Bonnie’s remnants will remain fairly close to the Carolina coast until the shear increases Friday…limiting the chance of regeneration then.

Bonnie made landfall on the coast of South Carolina, just east of Charleston Sunday morning as a tropical depression, with top winds of 35 mph. Bonnie spent just 18 hours as a tropical storm, reaching peak intensity of 45 mph Saturday night…when the center of the storm lingered over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Now retired tropical cyclone Bonnie was declared post-tropical by the National Hurricane Center Monday, but the remains of Bonnie will continue to bring additional rainfall eastern part of N.C.

Here’s the NOAA precipitation outlook graphic through the next 3-days

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 85 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREA NEAR MOREHEAD CITY…NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR MUCH OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

HAZARDS

RAINFALL…POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING…PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3, respectively.

Two tropical cyclones have already formed this year, Hurricane Alex in January and Tropical Storm Bonnie in May. The next named storm that forms this season will be named Colin.