There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…also showing a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing over the next 2-days
There’s a good chance of seeing a tropical cyclone spinning-up between Bermuda and Bahamas…before the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins on June 1st.
Showers and thunderstorms have increased, and become more organized over the ocean between the Bahamas and Bermuda. This low pressure system, being referred to as Invest 91L, appears likely to develop into a tropical depression. Should it become a named storm, it would be called Bonnie.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has it moving west-northwest or northwest…towards the southeast coast of the United States.
Here’s the latest satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what several of the computer models are showing
Here’s a near real time wind profile of this area in the western Atlantic Ocean
Sea water temperatures in this area are running between 79 and 81F degrees…which is above average for this time of year. The sea waters in this general area have cooled a little from yesterday, although are still warm enough to help generate a tropical depression…or storm.
Wind shear at the moment is on the high side, blowing 20-30 knots, thus limiting development until the wind shear aloft lowers Friday. A large area of dry air lies to the west of this tropical disturbance, and is expected to interfere with development. One of the models is predicting that wind shear would fall to the more moderate 10-20 knot range Friday…then lower below 10 knots over the weekend.
The NHC has increased the chances of development in the 2-day and 5-day time ranges…to medium 50% and high 70%, respectively.
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L Friday.
Invest 91L probably won’t have enough time over water to become a strong tropical storm, much less a hurricane, so heavy rain and possible flooding is the main concern from this system. Heavy rains may reach the coasts of South and North Carolina Saturday night or Sunday morning.
Here’s the NOAA precipitation outlook graphic today through May 31st. Besides the rainfall expected from this potential tropical depression along the southeast coast…there’s a very large swatch of heavy flooding rainfall across the mid-section of the United States at the same time!
Atlantic Ocean
There are no active tropical cyclones
1. A low pressure area centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is gradually becoming better defined while shower activity is increasing. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone formation on Friday while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. With the Memorial Day weekend approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force reconnaissance plane will be scheduled to investigate this low on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map
NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic
Caribbean Sea
There are no active tropical cyclones
NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones