There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea…or the Gulf of Mexico
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation
A middle level counterclockwise circulation (cyclonic) over the Bay of Campeche, and an upper level trough of low pressure, is generating a large area of cloudiness and showers, over most of the southern Gulf of Mexico, and adjacent land areas of south and southeast Mexico…including the Yucatan Peninsula.
This persistent low pressure system has been active in the Bay of Campeche area since June 2nd…which started out as an elongated and broad area of low pressure…with a zero chance of developing. Near gale force winds are blowing to the east of the center today…in contrast.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), gradual development of this disturbance could occur later today, before environmental conditions become hostile again tomorrow (Saturday).
Regardless of development or not, extremely heavy rainfall, along with life threatening flash floods and mud slides, will continue during the next few days over portions of southeast Mexico.
The Mexican Weather Service (MWS) noted in an advisory this morning (Friday) that 90L has the potential to bring rain to the states of Central, South and Southeast parts of the country, as well as in the Yucatan Peninsula. The MWS forecasts between 6 to 10 inches of rainfall for the state of Veracruz; between 3 to 6 inches for the Guerrero, Oaxaca, Puebla y Chiapas; and rainfall between 2 to 3 inches for México, Michoacán, Hidalgo, Morelos, Tabasco, and Distrito Federal y Tlaxcala.
Here’s a large NASA satellite image taken today, of this tropical disturbance in the far southern Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane hunting aircraft have been given the order to investigate this disturbance this afternoon at 3pm EDT. This area of low pressure is being referred to as Invest 90L.
90L is drifting slowly to the west, and weather models predict this motion will continue, bringing the storm ashore along the Mexican coast near Veracruz Saturday. None of the forecast models predict that 90L will develop into a tropical storm over the next five days. In their 1115 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving the 2-day and 5-day odds of development at a high 70%. If 90L does develop, the strongest winds would likely become no higher than 45 mph. The big threat from 90L, as mentioned above, are the heavy rains…which will continue over Southeast Mexico into the weekend.
Here’s an infrared satellite image of this area. Here’s the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map
Atlantic Ocean
There are no active tropical cyclones
NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic
Caribbean Sea
There are no active tropical cyclones
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
area of low pressure about 40 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico,
has become a little better defined this morning as it moves
slowly west-northwestward. However, the associated thunderstorm
activity is currently poorly organized. A tropical depression
could form before the low reaches the coast of eastern Mexico
later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
Whether a tropical depression forms or not, this disturbance
could produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and
eastern Mexico during the next few days..
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.