Tropical depression 11L (Jerry) remains active…located about 890 miles west-southwest of the Azores (Sustained winds of 35 mph)
Tropical storm 12L (Karen) is now active…located about 485 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River (Sustained winds of 65 mph)
Tropical depression Jerry remains active, although is on a weakening trend, in the central north Atlantic Ocean…located about 890 miles west-southwest of the Azores. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggests that TD Jerry will remain at the same strength that it is now (35 mph sustained winds)…through the next 24 hours.
However, by 36 hours, as this tropical depression moves over progressively cooler sea surface temperatures, and begins feeling stronger west-southwesterly vertical wind shear…it’s forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system. The NHC calls for complete dissipation within 96 hours.
Meanwhile, Tropical cyclone 12L, already having attained tropical storm status, and named Karen (previously called Invest 97L)…is now active in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued hurricane watches along the United States Gulf Coast. TS Karen darted out from the starting gate with 60 mph winds right from the get go!
The NHC keeps Karen at the tropical storm level through the next 24 hours, before briefly bringing it up to the low level hurricane status at the 36 hour point…before bringing it back down to a TS by 48 hours. The primary limiting factor from keeping this storm from getting a lot stronger, is the vertical wind shear aloft, and drier than normal air in the Gulf at this time. This is fortunate, as TS Karen is expected to weaken somewhat as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Nonetheless, this storm isn’t expected to have much below hurricane force winds as it makes landfall….in about 72 hours.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
Tropical storm Jerry
There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical storm Karen