Tropical storm 11L (Jerry) remains active…located about 1275 miles east of Bermuda (Sustained winds of 40 mph)
Tropical storm Jerry remains active in the central north Atlantic Ocean, located about 1275 miles east of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggests that TS Jerry will remain at the same strength that it is now (40 mph sustained winds)…through the next 48-72 hours. Movement of this tropical storm is nearly stationary…although eventually will begin moving north-northeast to northeast during the next 24 hours or so. There are no land areas threatened by this storm.
Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, being referred to as Invest 97L, remains active over the western Caribbean Sea. It currently has a medium 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the chances increase to 50% during the next 5-days.
Heavy rains are occurring over the Cayman Islands and western Cuba now. This heavy precipitation is expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today into Thursday…forecasts are for 3-6 inches in this area.
The models want to take Invest 97L northward into the Gulf of Mexico, after it pushes through the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The models eventually show a landfall along the Gulf coast of the United States…somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. If this system attains tropical depression status, it would be referred to as 12L, and if went on to become a tropical storm in the GoM…would take on the name Karen. Regardless of whether this tropical disturbance attains the tropical depression status, or even becomes a tropical storm, it will likely bring heavy rains to parts of Louisiana and the Florida panhandle this weekend.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
Tropical storm Jerry
There are no active tropical cyclones
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.