Tropical storm 11L (Jerry) remains active…located about 1300 NM east of Bermuda (Sustained winds of 45 mph)
Tropical storm Jerry remains active in the central Atlantic Ocean, located about 1300 miles east of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggests that TS Jerry will remain at the same strength that it is now (45 mph sustained winds)…through the next 96 hours. Movement of this tropical storm will be very slow, drifting more or less northward…and then eventually speeding up a little and veering to the northeast with time. There are no land areas threatened by this storm, although open going vessels should steer clear.
Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, being referred to as Invest 97L, remains active. It’s located over the western Caribbean Sea. It currently has a medium 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the chances increase to 50% during the next 5-days. Environmental conditions are expected to improve somewhat (in terms of development) as it moves over the northwestern Caribbean, and into the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Heavy rains are occurring over Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands now. This heavy precipitation is expected to spread to western Cuba, and into the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later in the day Wednesday…forecasts are for 4-8 inches in these areas.
The models want to take Invest 97L northward into the Gulf of Mexico, after it pushes through the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. It then may veer more to the northeast, and eventually impact the Gulf coast of the United States…somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. If this system attains tropical depression status, it would be referred to as 12L, and if went on to become a tropical storm in the GoM…would take on the name Karen.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
Tropical storm Jerry
There are no active tropical cyclones
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.