Tropical storm 11L (Jerry) is active…located about 1200 NM east-southeast of Bermuda (Sustained winds of 40 mph)
The eleventh Atlantic tropical depression formed this past Saturday evening, about 960 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands…moving north at 9 mph. Tropical Depression 11, then strengthened into tropical storm Jerry Sunday night, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph…moving towards the east at 7 mph. TS Jerry is expected to move slowly, and with no clear direction over the next several days..perhaps even making a loop.
Jerry was centered about 1,200 mile east-southeast of Bermuda early this morning (Monday, September 30th). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects that TS 11L will experience some strengthening over the next day or two. The NHC is forecasting Jerry to peak in strength at near 46 mph, during the next several days…not becoming a hurricane however. It is of no threat to any land or island areas at this time.
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, being referred to as Invest 97L, located in the central Caribbean. It’s located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica. It remains disorganized according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and has a low 10% chance of developing during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to improve somewhat as it moves over the northwestern Caribbean, and the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next 5-day days. It’s chances of becoming a tropical depression take on a medium 30% chance of developing during the next 5-days.
The primary limiting factor at the moment is the moderately strong vertical wind shear over this disturbance…along with relatively dry area ahead, along its path. Nonetheless, heavy rains are anticipated over Jamaica, and southwestern Haiti today. This heavy precipitation is expected to spread to the Cayman Islands, and parts of Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday…and onto the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico thereafter.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
Tropical storm Jerry
There are no active tropical cyclones
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY.