Tropical depression 09L (Humberto) remains active in the north central Atlantic…located about 985 miles west-southwest of the Azores Islands (Sustained winds of 35 mph)
Tropical depression Humberto is quickly losing what little organization that it still has, and has been downgraded to a tropical depression by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC referred to this as sputtering in their morning discussion…and went on to say that Humberto barely meets the criterion for maintaining this system as a tropical cyclone. The expectation is that Humberto will become a remnant low pressure within 24 hours…if not sooner.
Here’s a NASA satellite image of TD Humberto…along with the two other areas of disturbed weather, one in the western Atlantic, and the other in the Gulf of Mexico…discussed below.
According to the NHC this morning, tropical depression Humberto will soon be absorbed within a large extra-tropical cyclone in a day or so. Humberto was located in the North Central Atlantic, far from land areas…or about 985 miles west-southwest of the Azores. It was moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph…while maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph.
Meanwhile, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico. This area is being referred to as Invest 95L, which is a low pressure system now located in the Bay of Campeche. The NHC is giving this area a high 70% chance of developing during the next 2-days…with a higher 80% chance over the next 5-days. The forecast models are suggesting that 95L will remain in the Gulf of Mexico, as steering currents will remain weak.
Invest 95L was producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity this morning. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that conditions still appear conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or two. The low pressure area is expected to spread heavy rain over portions of eastern and southern Mexico…drenching areas already soaked by former Hurricane Ingrid.
Finally, there’s another area of disturbed weather, this one located between the Bahamas and Bermuda…which is producing clouds and showers. Upper-level winds do not appear conducive for significant tropical development.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that this disturbance has a low chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next two days…remaining low over the next 5-days as well.
Here’s a satellite image of this area
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.