Tropical storm 09L (Humberto) remains active in the north central Atlantic…located about 1060 miles west-southwest of the Azores Islands (Sustained winds of 40 mph)
Tropical storm Humberto continues to churn the waters of the north central Atlantic Ocean…although appears somewhat disorganized in satellite imagery. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that surface winds are blowing at near 40 knots (46 mph) near the center…with some strengthening possible during the next couple of days. The NHC forecast has TS Humberto becoming a post-tropical cyclone thereafter.
The strongest band of thunderstorms associated with this tropical storm, are located in the eastern quadrant, although the north and west quadrants also are showing clouds and showers. On the other hand, a part of the southern quadrant appears cloud-free. Forecasters at the NHC noted, that the low-level center has been very difficult to locate, in part due to clouds associated a nearby upper-level low…that has been masking the lower cloud motions.
Here’s a fairly recent NASA satellite image of TS Humberto
At 11am AST, the center of Humberto was located about 1,060 miles west-southwest of the Azores Islands. Humberto is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph, and is expected to turn north then north-northeast over the next few days. This path will keep Humberto away from any land areas, although open ocean mariners should be steering clear.
Meanwhile, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This disturbance is producing strong thunderstorms, supported by very moist air in the region. This low pressure system is forecast to move slowly towards the west-northwest, emerging over the Bay of Campeche over the next day or two.
Environmental conditions are expected to be even more favorable for development during the next 24-48 hours. It’s likely that this low will drift towards the west-northwest across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico into Friday. This system, being referred to as 95L, has a high 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, with an even higher 80% chance during the next 5-days.
Heavy rains are very likely to spread into eastern Mexico, as this system slides westward. These rains may cause life threatening floods and mud slides…over areas already impacted by torrential precipitation during the past several days.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS…WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE…80 PERCENT…OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY…IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.