Tropical storm 09L (Humberto) remains active in the north central Atlantic…located about 1070 miles west-southwest of the Azores Islands (Sustained winds of 45 mph)
Tropical storm 10L (Ingrid) is dissipating inland over Mexico…located about 50 miles west of Ciudad Victoria, Mexico (Sustained winds of 25 mph) – Final Advisory
Tropical storm Humberto continues its long life in the north central Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that surface winds are blowing at near 40 knots (46 mph). At upper levels, the vertical shear is forecast to remain in the low to moderately strong levels during the next 24 hours or so. These upper level winds are expected to increase in strength in 3-4 days. Thus, there is still room for an increase in strength over the next few days.
The current track keeps TS Humberto over the ocean away from the Azores Islands, and any other land areas. Looking further ahead, the track eventually takes this tropical cyclone northeast towards Iceland late this coming weekend…or by early next week.
Post-tropical storm Ingrid is now dissipating over Mexico, and has been given its final advisory by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami. According to the NHC, deep convection continues over parts of eastern Mexico however, with satellite imagery and surface observations indicating that the center and circulation of post-tropical cyclone Ingrid…have been destroyed by interaction with the mountainous terrain.
Despite its dissipating, tropical moisture is expected to remain over this area for another couple of days. This suggests that the potential for heavy rains, flash flooding and mud slides continues. Here’s a satellite image of this former tropical cyclone.
Meanwhile, there’s a broad area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico…and the Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is producing strong thunderstorms, supported by very moist air in the region. This low pressure system is forecast to move slowly towards the west-northwest, emerging over the Bay of Campeche tonight into Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be a bit more favorable for development during the next 24-48 hours. It is likely that this low will then drift towards the west-northwest across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later in the week. This system, being referred to as 95L, has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5-days.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
There are no active tropical cyclones
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW IS LIKELY TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.