Hurricane 09L (Humberto) remains active in the eastern Atlantic…located about 515 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands (Sustained winds of 85 mph)
Tropical storm 07L (Gabrielle) remains active in the western Atlantic…located about 200 miles northwest of Bermuda (Sustained winds of 40 mph)
Hurricane Humberto remains active in the eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength at this time…at 85 mph. This qualifies it as a category 1 tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Humberto is running under an area with south-southwesterly wind shear. This shear, along with cooler sea surface temperatures ahead, will likely bring this hurricane back down into a tropical storm category within 24 hours.
The NHC forecast track keeps Humberto away from any land or island areas…moving more or less towards the north at the time of this writing. A large high pressure system, north of the Azores Islands, will cause this system to take a turn to the northwest, and then west-northwest later in the forecast period.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is staying a good distance offshore from the eastern seaboard of the United States…600+ miles northeast of the border between North and South Carolina. Gabrielle brought over an inch of rain, and gusty 40+ mph winds as it passed by Bermuda late Tuesday…and is now heading towards Canada.
The bulk of clouds and showers associated with Gabrielle now are being pushed to the northeast of the center, because of a southwesterly wind shear aloft. TS Gabrielle is moving to the north at 8 mph, and is expected to turn north-northeast and speed up, as it transitions into an extra-tropical storm over the next day or so. This in turn may bring heavy precipitation to the Canadian Maritime Provinces later tomorrow into Saturday.
Meanwhile, the low pressure area known as Invest 93L, is now located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and has a high chance to become a tropical depression. This tropical disturbance, which has been over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico lately, has moved westward into the Bay of Campeche.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that environmental conditions appear to be favorable for development, and this disturbance continues to have a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next two days. The NHC noted that 93L is forecast to move very slowly across the southern Gulf of Mexico producing locally heavy rains over a large part of eastern Mexico during the next several days.
Finally, the area of disturbed weather remains active, now about 500 miles east of the leeward islands. Despite the fact that it will move westward towards the islands, it isn’t likely to become a tropical depression, at least over the next two days…according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It may however bring some gusty breezes, and rainfall to that area as it gets closer. It’s being referred to as Invest 92L, and here’s a satellite picture of this area.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS READY TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.