Hurricane 09L (Humberto) remains active in the Atlantic…located about 340 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands (Sustained winds of 80 mph)
Tropical storm 07L (Gabrielle) remains active in the western Atlantic…located about 65 miles west-northwest of Bermuda (Sustained winds of 45 mph)
The first hurricane of the 2013 season has come to life in the central Atlantic with Hurricane Humberto…sporting category 1 force winds at the time of this writing. This is definitely late in the season for our first hurricane to occur…especially considering that this was expected to be a very active season for the Atlantic Ocean!
Hurricane Humberto is a small sized tropical cyclone, which has been showing a central eye this morning. Environmental conditions obviously have been favorable, although it won’t be long before increasing wind shear aloft, and cooler sea surface temperatures below…will begin to take their toll on Humberto. This weakening process will likely begin by Friday morning, if not sooner. There are no land or island areas along the projected NHC forecast track for Humberto.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle remains alive in the western Atlantic, although wind shear aloft continues affecting this tropical storm. Those upper level winds are blowing from the southwest at 15 to 20 knot, helping to push the clouds and rain associated with Gabrielle to the northeast of the center. At the surface, tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, and because of this wind shear aloft, those strong winds were mostly northeast of the center.
Although Bermuda’s watches and warnings have been dropped, Gabrielle is still expected to bring between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall to the island today. Tropical-storm force winds will be fading soon, but rough surf is expected to continue as Gabrielle pulls away.
At 1200 UTC, Gabrielle’s maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph and weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located about 65 miles west-northwest of Bermuda. At that time, Gabrielle was nearly stationary, although is expected to start moving slowly to the northwest then turn north on Thursday.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that over the next two to three days, whatever’s left of Gabrielle is expected to merge with a cold frontal system moving east.
Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance over the Yucatan, being referred to as 93L, has a medium 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This area however will find improving environmental conditions with time, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is upping the chance of development into a tropical depression, to a higher 70% chance over the next 5-days.
Finally, a new area of disturbed weather is now active about 700 miles east of the leeward islands. Despite the fact that it will move westward towards the islands, it isn’t likely to become a tropical depression…according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It may however bring some gusty breezes, and rainfall to that area as it gets closer. It’s being referred to as Invest 92L, and here’s a satellite picture of this area.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
There are no active tropical cyclones
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND TODAY AND ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY WHEN SOME DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones