Tropical storm 09L (Humberto) remains active in the eastern Atlantic…located about 220 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands (Sustained winds of 65 mph)
Tropical storm 07L (Gabrielle) is now active in the western Atlantic…located about 120 miles south of Bermuda (Sustained winds of 40 mph)
Satellite imagery finds heavy rain falling south of Tropical Storm Humberto‘s center, as it continues to strengthen in the Eastern Atlantic.
NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) passed near Humberto this morning, collecting data used in rainfall analysis. TRMM’s Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) showed a large area of heavy rain south of Humberto’s center…with rain falling at a rate of 2 inches per hour.
TS Humberto’s maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph, approximately 10 mph short of reaching hurricane-force. Humberto is now predicted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to become a hurricane later today.
The center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located about 220 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Humberto is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph, and is expected to turn to the northwest later today, then northward thereafter.
If Humberto becomes a hurricane, which looks likely at the time of this writing, it would be the first of the Atlantic Ocean season.
According to Dr. Jeff Masters: September 10th marks the traditional halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the first half of the hurricane season of 2013 is making its mark in the history books as one of the least active such periods on record. Going back to before when the Hurricane Hunters first began flying in 1944, there has been only one hurricane season that made it past the half-way point without a hurricane forming: the El Niño year of 2002…when Hurricane Gustav formed at 8 am EDT on September 11. Tropical Storm Humberto is looking poised to become a hurricane later today, and 2013 will likely end up ranking in 2nd place for latest formation of the season’s first hurricane, going back to 1941. Here are the Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1941 in which the first hurricane did not form until after September 7:
2002: September 11, Hurricane Gustav
2013: September 10+ (Nothing yet)
1984: September 10, Hurricane Diana
2001: September 8, Hurricane Erin
According to the NHC, August 10 is the average date the first Atlantic hurricane arrives, and the season’s third hurricane usually develops by September 9. So, assuming Humberto makes it to hurricane status, we are two hurricanes behind the average season pace. An average season brings six hurricanes, two of them being intense hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle has come alive again in the Atlantic Ocean, now having reformed south of Bermuda. At 1500 UTC TS Gabrielle had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, while some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Gabrielle was located about 120 miles south of Bermuda. Gabrielle is moving toward the north near 12 mph, and is expected to continue in that direction through tonight…before turning northwest and slowing down. The NHC noted that Gabrielle is expected to pass over or near Bermuda tonight into early Wednesday morning.
At 11 a.m. EDT, sustained winds in Bermuda were from the southwest at 13 mph, and expected to pick up as TS Gabrielle comes closer. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda at the time of this writing. According to the NHC, Gabrielle is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches possible. Bermuda can expect storm surge of 2 to 3 feet above normal tide levels, and tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin there tonight. Here’s the NOAA Satellite Estimated Rainfall loop.
Finally, a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean, being referred to as 93L, has a low 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This area however will find improving environmental conditions with time, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is upping the chance of development into a tropical depression, to a high 60% chance over the next 5-days.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
There are no active tropical cyclones
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY...WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones