Tropical storm 09L (Humberto) remains active in the far eastern Atlantic…located about 85 miles south-southeast of Fogo Cape Verde Islands (Sustained winds of 45 mph)
Tropical Depression 09L formed yesterday, September 8th in the far eastern Atlantic…strengthening into Tropical Storm Humberto today. TS Humberto is affecting the Cape Verde Islands, so there’s a tropical storm warning active over the southern islands of Maio, Santiago, Fogo, and Brava.
Powerful thunderstorms associated with Humberto, will support TS Humberto in continuing to strengthen in the short term. Those thunderstorms with the coldest cloud top temperatures, were just south of the Cape Verde Islands. Humberto has begun to move closer to some of these southern islands…bringing rain and gusty winds into the area today.
The center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located just 85 miles south-southeast of Fogo, in the Cape Verde Islands. Humberto is moving toward the west near 12 mph, and the storm is expected to turn to the west-northwest with time. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, and are expected to briefly become hurricane force over the next day or two before weakening after 96 hours.
The NHC noted that the center of Humberto will pass south of the southern Cape Verde Islands this afternoon and tonight…passing west of the islands on Tuesday.
If Humberto reaches hurricane strength before 8 am EDT on Wednesday, it will miss setting the record for the latest formation date of the Atlantic’s first hurricane…dating back the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era in 1944. TS Humberto is expected to take a sharp northwards turn later this week, which will carry this tropical cyclone into an region of ocean, where no land areas would likely be struck…with the possible exception of the Azores Islands.
Meanwhile, an elongated area of low pressure that include the remnants of tropical depression Gabrielle, are still lingering in the western Atlantic. This area of low pressure is located about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Because of wind shear aloft, the shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the east of the center. These upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development, while the low moves northeastward to north-northeastward during the next several days. This system has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.
Farther west, the National Hurricane Center noted that a low pressure area could form over the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of days.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE DISPLACING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AROUND THAT TIME IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK.