Tropical depression Gabrielle remains active in the Caribbean…located approximately 80 miles south-southeast of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic (sustained winds of 35 mph)
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami is now carrying tropical cyclone Gabrielle, after it became the seventh tropical cyclone of the season at 5pm EDT yesterday (September 4th). Then, around midnight Tropical Depression 7 strengthened into Tropical Storm Gabrielle, around 70 miles south of Ponce, Puerto Rico. This system has been bringing heavy precipitation to Puerto Rico, and adjacent islands this morning (September 5th).
By 8 a.m. EDT TD Gabrielle had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and it was about 65 miles south-southwest of Ponce, Puerto Rico. It was moving to the northwest at 8 mph, and that motion is expected to continue today. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for Gabrielle.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo. A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect for the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo to Cabo Engano.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TD Gabrielle is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern portions of the Dominican Republic…with isolated maximum amounts of up to 12 inches possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Rainfall will likely cause dangerous flash floods over areas exposed to these torrential downpours.
The National Hurricane Center expects Gabrielle’s center to pass near or over the southwestern portion of Puerto Rico today, and across the Mona Passage later in the day. Gabrielle should then move east of the Turks and the Caicos Islands on Friday.
Meanwhile, there are three areas of disturbed weather spread out between the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean. The one circled in orange above, in the southern Gulf of Mexico, has a medium 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. The other two, one just to the northeast of the Caribbean Islands, and the other in the Atlantic Ocean towards the African coast…both have a lower 10-20% chance of developing. Looking ahead through the 5-day period, neither of these have higher than a low chance of generating into a tropical depression.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
There are no active tropical cyclones
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS…ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH…EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRY AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS…
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS…AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR 0 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A MEDIUM CHANCE…30
PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.