Tropical depression Erin remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 540 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands (sustained winds of 35 mph)
Tropical cyclone Erin in the Atlantic Ocean, has recently slipped down from the tropical storm classification…to a tropical depression. This weakening is apparently due to the cooler sea surface temperatures it has moved over, and a more stable air environment. Despite the fact that TD Erin will move over somewhat warmer seas in a couple of days, there will also be an increase in southwesterly shearing winds aloft. This all translates into little change in strength through the upcoming NHC forecast period. The NHC goes on to say that Erin could degenerate into a remnant low pressure system during the next few days.
In sum, TD Erin is now weak, and has lost much of its heavy thunderstorm activity, with little chance of major change in its stature. Here’s what the various weather models are showing, based on the latest NHC forecast – Advisory #7. Here’s a NASA satellite image of TD Erin.
Meanwhile, the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean has shifted into the very southern part of the Gulf of Mexico. This tropical disturbance, better known as Invest 92L, is just offshore from the Yucatan Peninsula. This area has now begun to spin, although still doesn’t have much heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. There’s still a bit of dry air being entrained into this system as well, along with a moderate amount of wind shear too…keeping development subdued for the moment.
The NHC is giving 92L a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. Some of the weather models are trying to make this system spin up into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm already this weekend. There are varying directions that the models are showing for possible paths. As we can see, the two most likely perhaps, would be westward into Mexico…and more or less northward into the Texas Gulf coast.
The eastern extent of this system should be able to pump lots of heavy tropical moisture into the southeastern United States. This NWS 7 day precipitation graphic shows this swath of heavy precipitation well.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
There are no active tropical cyclones
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Gulf of Mexico
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT WOULD MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.