Tropical cyclone 01L (Andrea) is moving across north Carolina…located approximately 50 miles southwest of Fayetteville, North Carolina (Sustained winds of 45 mph, with gusts to near 58 mph)
Tropical storm Andrea remains active, as it races up the eastern seaboard of the United States. Here’s a large NASA satellite image of TS Andrea. Radar images show that this tropical storm is bringing locally heavy rains to the area as it moves by. Here’s the looping radar image from Wilmington, North Carolina. TS Andrea remains on a more or less northeast path, and continues its accelerating motion…currently at a fast paced 28 mph. This rapid forward speed is expected to increase further through Saturday night, while it gradually takes a more east-northeast track.
Here’s a youtube GOES video of tropical storm Andrea – best viewed in full screen
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggests that TS Andrea will be a major rainfall producer, bringing 2-4 inches from central and eastern North Carolina, northeastward along the eastern seaboard into coastal Maine. Additional precipitation totals of up to 2 inches are expected over portions of south Carolina this morning, which could bring storm total accumulations up to 6 inches. Here’s a NOAA graphic showing the 48 hour rainfall forecast.
As far as storm surge goes, the combination of this surge, along with tides will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia could see peak surge heights of 1-2 feet. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast, especially when it coincides with high tide marks. The highest storm surge along Andrea’s path thus far, took place at Cedar Key, Florida…which was 4.55 feet.
Tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) will continue to spread northeastward along the east coast during the next 12 hours. Strong winds are possible elsewhere along the coast from Virginia to Atlantic Canada through early Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a few tornadoes are possible over eastern portions of NC and Virginia today.
According to the Wunderground website: Andrea’s formation in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we’ve seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 – 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been fifteen June named storms (if we include 2013’s Tropical Storm Andrea.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 – 1994, compared to 6 in the 19-year period 1995 – 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May – June) and late season (November – December) Atlantic tropical storms.
Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, “Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?” He concluded that there is a “apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high.” He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 to 10 days per decade
The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will continue to monitor this situation.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
There are no active tropical cyclones
There are no active tropical cyclones
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 01L (Andrea)
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.