CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)…is located 280 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Helene)…is located 1225 miles south-southwest of the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaac)…is located 220 miles east of Dominic
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Joyce)…is located 910 miles west-southwest of the Azores
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 55…Florence is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph, and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected Thursday night and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina on Thursday, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday night and Friday. A slow motion over eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night and Saturday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph with higher gusts. Florence is now a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers…9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC…6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC…6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC…4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC…4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border…2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC…2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas… Coastal North Carolina…20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina…5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches. Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states…3 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina beginning late Thursday morning.
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane 08L (Helene)
According to the NHC Advisory 22…Helene is moving toward the north near 13 mph. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected Thursday night followed by a turn toward the northeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
Tropical Storm 09L (Isaac)
According to the NHC Advisory 21…Isaac is moving toward the west near 20 mph, and this general motion with a decrease in forward is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. A gradual decrease in the winds is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles to the north of the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday.
STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sub-Tropical Storm 11L (Joyce)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 2…The storm is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph. A slow southwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. A turn toward the northeast with a rapid increase in forward motion is forecast to occur over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Joyce is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next day or so. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles from the center, mainly to the northwest.
>>> 1.) A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form Thursday or Thursday night, before the system reaches the western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
2.) An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Helene)
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaac)
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Joyce)
Gulf of Mexico
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