CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)…is located 60 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Helene)…is located 885 miles southwest of Lajes AB in the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaac)…is located 195 miles south St. Croix
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Joyce)…is located 1040 miles west-southwest of the Azores
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 59…Florence is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slow forward speed is expected through Friday, followed by a slow west-southwestward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to move inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina Friday and Saturday. Florence will then recurve across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.
Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, coastal surface observations, and NOAA Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Florence moves inland on Friday. More significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles. A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph with a gust to 100 mph. A storm surge of 10 feet above normal levels was reported by the National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina, at the Cherry Branch Ferry Terminal on the Neuse River, courtesy of the North Carolina Department of Transportation.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers…9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC…6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC…6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC…4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC…4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border…2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC…2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas… Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina…20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia…6 to 12 inches, isolated 24 inches.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning area.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina through Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Storm 08L (Helene)
According to the NHC Advisory 27…Helene is moving toward the north near 21 mph. The cyclone is expected to accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the weekend. On this forecast track, Helene will be passing near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
Tropical Storm 09L (Isaac)
According to the NHC Advisory 26…Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph, and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 to 10 inches over Dominica. Rainfall amounts of of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, especially over elevated terrain. Rainfall totals 1 to 2 inch with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause dangerous flash flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring within portions of the warning area and should continue through the afternoon hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today.
SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sub-Tropical Storm 11L (Joyce)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 6…Joyce is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Joyce is forecast to gradually turn toward the northeast on Friday and then accelerate northeastward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Joyce is now a tropical storm. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
1.) An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigating the disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico found a broad and elongated area of low pressure with a few squalls. Upper-level winds are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still form before the system moves inland along the western Gulf coast on Friday. Another Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate the system on Friday if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and Texas on Friday and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
2.) An area of low pressure is expected to form near Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. After that time, additional development, if any, is expected to be slow while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Helene)
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaac)
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Joyce)
Gulf of Mexico
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